Paper 4, Section I, J

Statistical Modelling | Part II, 2019

In a normal linear model with design matrix X∈Rn×pX \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times p}, output variables y∈Rny \in \mathbb{R}^{n} and parameters β∈Rp\beta \in \mathbb{R}^{p} and σ2>0\sigma^{2}>0, define a (1−α)(1-\alpha)-level prediction interval for a new observation with input variables x∗∈Rpx^{*} \in \mathbb{R}^{p}. Derive an explicit formula for the interval, proving that it satisfies the properties required by the definition. [You may assume that the maximum likelihood estimator β^\hat{\beta} is independent of σ−2∥y−Xβ^∥22\sigma^{-2}\|y-X \hat{\beta}\|_{2}^{2}, which has a χn−p2\chi_{n-p}^{2} distribution.]

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