4.II.26I

Applied Probability | Part II, 2008

On a hot summer night, opening my window brings some relief. This attracts hordes of mosquitoes who manage to negotiate a dense window net. But, luckily, I have a mosquito trapping device in my room.

Assume the mosquitoes arrive in a Poisson process at rate λ\lambda; afterwards they wander around for independent and identically distributed random times with a finite mean ES\mathbb{E} S, where SS denotes the random wandering time of a mosquito, and finally are trapped by the device.

(a) Identify a mathematical model, which was introduced in the course, for the number of mosquitoes present in the room at times t⩾0t \geqslant 0.

(b) Calculate the distribution of Q(t)Q(t) in terms of λ\lambda and the tail probabilities P(S>x)\mathbb{P}(S>x) of the wandering time SS, where Q(t)Q(t) is the number of mosquitoes in the room at time t>0t>0 (assuming that at the initial time, Q(0)=0Q(0)=0 ).

(c) Write down the distribution for QEQ^{\mathrm{E}}, the number of mosquitoes in the room in equilibrium, in terms of λ\lambda and ES\mathbb{E} S.

(d) Instead of waiting for the number of mosquitoes to reach equilibrium, I close the window at time t>0t>0. For v⩾0v \geqslant 0 let X(t+v)X(t+v) be the number of mosquitoes left at time t+vt+v, i.e. vv time units after closing the window. Calculate the distribution of X(t+v)X(t+v).

(e) Let V(t)V(t) be the time needed to trap all mosquitoes in the room after closing the window at time t>0t>0. By considering the event {X(t+v)⩾1}\{X(t+v) \geqslant 1\}, or otherwise, compute P[V(t)>v]\mathbb{P}[V(t)>v].

(f) Now suppose that the time tt at which I shut the window is very large, so that I can assume that the number of mosquitoes in the room has the distribution of QEQ^{E}. Let VEV^{E} be the further time needed to trap all mosquitoes in the room. Show that

P[VE>v]=1−exp⁡(−λE[(S−v)+]),\mathbb{P}\left[V^{E}>v\right]=1-\exp \left(-\lambda \mathbb{E}\left[(S-v)_{+}\right]\right),

where x+≡max⁡(x,0)x_{+} \equiv \max (x, 0).

Typos? Please submit corrections to this page on GitHub.