Paper 3, Section II, E

Mathematical Biology | Part II, 2015

A fungal disease is introduced into an isolated population of frogs. Without disease, the normalised population size xx would obey the logistic equation x˙=x(1x)\dot{x}=x(1-x), where the dot denotes differentiation with respect to time. The disease causes death at rate dd and there is no recovery. The disease transmission rate is β\beta and, in addition, offspring of infected frogs are infected from birth.

(a) Briefly explain why the population sizes xx and yy of uninfected and infected frogs respectively now satisfy

x˙=x[1x(1+β)y]y˙=y[(1d)(1β)xy]\begin{aligned} \dot{x} &=x[1-x-(1+\beta) y] \\ \dot{y} &=y[(1-d)-(1-\beta) x-y] \end{aligned}

(b) The population starts at the disease-free population size (x=1)(x=1) and a small number of infected frogs are introduced. Show that the disease will successfully invade if and only if β>d\beta>d.

(c) By finding all the equilibria in x0,y0x \geqslant 0, y \geqslant 0 and considering their stability, find the long-term outcome for the frog population. State the relationships between dd and β\beta that distinguish different final populations.

(d) Plot the long-term steady total population size as a function of dd for fixed β\beta, and note that an intermediate mortality rate is actually the most harmful. Explain why this is the case.

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