Paper 2, Section II, J

Applied Probability | Part II, 2013

(i) Define a Poisson process as a Markov chain on the non-negative integers and state three other characterisations.

(ii) Let λ(s)(s0)\lambda(s)(s \geqslant 0) be a continuous positive function. Let (Xt,t0)\left(X_{t}, t \geqslant 0\right) be a right-continuous process with independent increments, such that

P(Xt+h=Xt+1)=λ(t)h+o(h)P(Xt+h=Xt)=1λ(t)h+o(h)\begin{aligned} \mathbb{P}\left(X_{t+h}=X_{t}+1\right) &=\lambda(t) h+o(h) \\ \mathbb{P}\left(X_{t+h}=X_{t}\right) &=1-\lambda(t) h+o(h) \end{aligned}

where the o(h)o(h) terms are uniform in t[0,)t \in[0, \infty). Show that XtX_{t} is a Poisson random variable with parameter Λ(t)=0tλ(s)ds\Lambda(t)=\int_{0}^{t} \lambda(s) d s.

(iii) Let X=(Xn:n=1,2,)X=\left(X_{n}: n=1,2, \ldots\right) be a sequence of independent and identically distributed positive random variables with continuous density function ff. We define the sequence of successive records, (Kn,n=0,1,)\left(K_{n}, n=0,1, \ldots\right), by K0:=0K_{0}:=0 and, for n0n \geqslant 0,

Kn+1:=inf{m>Kn:Xm>XKn}K_{n+1}:=\inf \left\{m>K_{n}: X_{m}>X_{K_{n}}\right\}

The record process,(Rt,t0)\left(R_{t}, t \geqslant 0\right), is then defined by

Rt:=#{n1:XKnt}R_{t}:=\#\left\{n \geqslant 1: X_{K_{n}} \leqslant t\right\}

Explain why the increments of RR are independent. Show that RtR_{t} is a Poisson random variable with parameter log{1F(t)}-\log \{1-F(t)\} where F(t)=0tf(s)dsF(t)=\int_{0}^{t} f(s) d s.

[You may assume the following without proof: For fixed t>0t>0, let YY (respectively, ZZ ) be the subsequence of XX obtained by retaining only those elements that are greater than (respectively, smaller than) tt. Then YY (respectively, ZZ ) is a sequence of independent variables each having the distribution of X1X_{1} conditioned on X1>tX_{1}>t (respectively, X1<tX_{1}<t ); and YY and ZZ are independent.]

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