2.II.10F

Define the conditional probability $P(A \mid B)$ of the event $A$ given the event $B$.

A bag contains four coins, each of which when tossed is equally likely to land on either of its two faces. One of the coins shows a head on each of its two sides, while each of the other three coins shows a head on only one side. A coin is chosen at random, and tossed three times in succession. If heads turn up each time, what is the probability that if the coin is tossed once more it will turn up heads again? Describe the sample space you use and explain carefully your calculations.

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